Week 13: NFL Picks & Predictions

I pick ’em every week and have for years. This season, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site sports-uncut.com.

Going into last week (12), I was a solid if unspectacular 114-46, good for a 72.5 percent accuracy rate.

Last season was my personal best of right at 80%. This year, I’m looking to improve upon that, but these 10-6 weeks are killing me, and I gotta get at least 11 wins this week! Maybe I should pick Denver huh?

This week, there is only one game on Thursday, as opposed to last week when there were 3. Which leads me to mentioning that I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving with your families and friends! I know I did, however, I do what I always say I won’t, and that’s over eat to the point of being miserable! Damn Pumpkin Pie……

Anyway, this week’s Thursday night game pits the New York Jets at Buffalo in what’s sure to be a barn burner…..

the good news is that there are some decent games this week, nothing really great, but some decent games aside from the dud on Thursday. As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks; I’m picking the straight-up winner.

Record:

Record from Two Weeks Previous (11): 11-4

Record from Last Week (12): 10-6

Record coming into Week 13: 124 – 52 (70.4 percent)

Now that the records are out of the way, let’s get right to it!

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Week 12: NFL Picks & Predictions

I pick ’em every week and have for years. This season, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site at www.sports-uncut.com.

Going into last week (eleven), I was a solid if unspectacular 103-42, good for a 70.6 percent accuracy rate. Last season was my personal best of 80 percent. This year, I’m looking to improve upon that.

Last week I actually didn’t have time to do the article as work requirements kept me away, however I did pick in my local pool and I ended up 11-4 for the week and my picks here never vary from those. I missed the Pittsburgh vs. Chiefs game, as I picked the Steelers. I missed the Falcons/Giants game, as I thought Matty Ice would be solid against the G-Men. I missed the Cincy/Oakland game, as basically everyone else did….who’d have though hat game would play out like that? And finally, I also missed the Houston/Tennessee game last night as I though Schaub would have a monster night.

This week, there are 3 games on Thursday, which means plenty of time to gorge yourself and ample opportunities to watch some pigskin! You’ve got Green Bay @ Detroit on Fox, Oakland @ Dallas on CBS and of course the G-Men @ Denver on Thursday Night Football on NFL network.

There are some good games and intriguing matchups on the slate for this week. As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks; I’m picking the straight up winner.

Record:

Record from Two Weeks Previous (10): 10-5

Record from Last Week (11): 11-4

Record coming into Week (12): 114 – 46 (72.5 percent)

Now that the records are out of the way, let’s get right to it!

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Week 10: NFL Picks & Predictions

I pick ’em every week and have for years. This season, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site at www.sports-uncut.com.

Going into last week (9), I was a solid if unspectacular 82-35, good for a 70.0 percent accuracy rate. Last season was my personal best of 80 percent. This year, I’m looking to improve that!

Over the last two weeks, I’ve been good, going 21-5 and I finished Week 9 with a solid 11-2 record, not bad by my standards.

This week marks the first week of Thursday Night Football on NFL network when the Bears travel to San Fran., and I’m hoping that I don’t have to hear any more of Gumble than necessary…..

It’s a new week, so let’s get on with it!

As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks; I’m picking the straight up winner.

Record

Record from Two Weeks Previous (8): 10-3

Record from Last Week (9): 11-2

Record coming into Week (10): 93-37 (71.5 percent)

Now that the records are out of the way, let’s get right to it!

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Week 7: NFL Picks & Predictions

As most of you know, I pick em’ every week and have for years, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site at www.sports-uncut.com.

Going into last Week (6) I was a solid, if unspectacular 54-22, good for a 71.05 percent accuracy rate. Last season was my personal best of right at 80 percent, this year, I’m looking to improve that! It’s slowly getting better and better!

I finished Week 6 with an average 9-5 record, not great….but, not bad either. My percentage did dip from 71, but only by one point. The Philly v Oakland game came out of left field! Regardless, this week, I’m looking to improve upon that performance greatly!

As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks, I’m picking the straight up winner. So, let’s get to it!

Record:

Record from 2 Weeks Previous (5): 11-3

Record from last Week (6): 9-5

Record coming into Week (7): 63-27 (70.0 percent)

So, let’s get right to it!

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Week 5: NFL Picks & Predictions

Last season, I finished the year right below 80% on my picks. My picks were solid all year, and earned me mention on some the biggest sports bettors in the world websites, including Brandon Lang and J.R. Miller among others.

Now, I don’t pick against the spread, I pick the straight up winners. So, keep that in mind as you look at all of these.

This has been a topsy-turvy season thus far, and I’m slowly coming out of that wicked bad early season slump caused by Week 2’s picks, and hope to get to 12 wins this week, same as last week.

Record from Previous Week (4): 12-2

Record coming into Week (5): 43-19 (69.35%)

Overall record: 43-19

Let’s get it on!

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Week 2: NFL Picks and Predictions

If you look over at my blog site (www.sports-uncut.com) and look at my week one picks, you’ll see that I missed only two picks last week, which makes my record coming into this week a very sleek-looking 14-2.

I pick the games every week.  Have for years, and last year was my best effort, finishing right at 80 percent.  This year I’m looking to beat that personal best. 

When I pick the games, I do so from a win/lose, matchup standpoint, meaning, I don’t factor in the lines and who’s favored by what.  It’s just a straight up who’s gonna win it.  So, I’m shooting for another 12+ win record this week….let’s get to it!

 

Week 2 NFL picks:

Record from previous Week (1): 14-2

Record coming into Week(2): 14-2

Overall record: 14-2

 

Games:

Sunday Sept. 20, 2009

·           Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Houston looked absolutely dreadful in their opener at home.  Andre Johnson, who in my opinion is maybe the best WR in the league, was a complete non-factor.  Maybe that was because there was no one to take some of the attention away from him, or maybe it was just that Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, and the rest of that team flat out stunk. 

This week, they go to Tennessee and face the Kerry Collins-led Titans, and I don’t think it gets any better for them.  Tennessee’s D is too tough and the Texans certainly look beatable. 

Verdict: Tennessee gets it done at home.

 

·                New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams looked stellar in Week 1.  Drew Brees owned the Lions D, to the tune of six TD’s and 350+ passing and 45 points.  The Eagles looked pretty good in their opener as well, easily beating the Panthers and interception prone Jack Delhomme. 

This week could be different though.  The game IS in Philly at Lincoln Financial Field, and the Saints D IS beatable.  However, the questions surrounding Donovan McNabb and whether or not he’ll play worry me. 

Without him, they’re just not the same, and Kevin Kolb has done nothing to impress me since he’s been in the league.  Garcia could play, and frankly, that’s a better option than Kolb. 

If McNabb plays, which it sounds like he will from what I’ve heard, the Eagles offense will be too much for the Saints D to stop. If he doesn’t play, the sledding becomes a bit more difficult.

Verdict:  The Eagles get a win and go to 2-0.

 

·                  Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Cardinals looked like a different team from the last time we saw them suit up for real against the Steelers in the Super Bowl.  They looked lost, and completely out of sync offensively and defensively, they looked pretty pedestrian.

That said, the Jags looked equally as unspectacular as Arizona did in their defeat at the hands of Indianapolis.

Both teams worry me a bit right now for a couple of reasons:

1.  Mediocre QB play.

2.  Lackluster Defensive play.

So, in situations like this, I look at the team that has the most potential to do some serious damage.  Arizona is a sleeping giant, and once this team gets on track, that O will come back to life.  I look for a rebound this week.

Verdict:  The Cards win in a blowout.

 

·                 Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

The lowly Raiders visit the equally unimpressive Chiefs in this AFC West match-up.  I’ve been pretty outspoken in saying that this division is the worst in Football, which is why it’s good to own Philip Rivers in your fantasy league…..I digress though.

One bad team plays another bad team and less worse of the two gets the win.

I like what KC did against the Ravens, hanging tough for a while and making it a game.  If they can do that again against the Raiders, like they should be able to, they’ll get the win.

Verdict:  Kansas City wins…barely.

 

·                 Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers

The Bengals got beat at home by the Broncos on what can only be considered as the ‘Immaculate Deflection” when Kyle Orton found Brandon Stokley on an 87-yard TD.  However, they’re lucky that the game was that close.

Denver’s inability to execute was almost as bad as Cincy’s, and had the Broncos been functioning correctly, they would have killed the Bengals because they were deplorable.

Coversely, Green Bay punked the whiny one himself, Jay Cutler, by picking him off four times and making that offense look silly.  Aaron Rodgers wasn’t stellar, but was good enough to win. 

I think this week we’ll see the full power of the Green Bay Packers offense and I expect them to dominate defensively as well.

Verdict: Green Bay absolutely mauls the Bengals

 

·                 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

OK, it’s Minnesota and Mr. All Day, Adrian Peterson against the Lions.  Do I really need to explain this one?

Verdict: The Vikings get an easy Win in the Motor City.

 

·                 St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins

The Rams have so little in the way of offense, I would venture a guess that Detroit may have better options, aside from S-Jax of course.  I almost feel bad for that guy, because if he was on a decent team, he’d be amazing.

Washington was underwhelming in their loss to the Giants, but, it was the Giants.  The same Giants who’ll probably end up having a Top 5 defense.

I expect Campbell, Portis, Moss, and Cooley to get on track this week.  Jim Zorn will have them ready to go and I think they’ll get a much-needed win at home.

Verdict: Skins’ win pretty easy and Campbell actually looks like a real QB.

 

·           New England Patriots @ New York Jets

I WASN’T very impressed with the Patriots and what they showed on Monday night.  Frankly, Leodis McKelvin basically gave them that game. 

Brady was solid, as was Moss, but, Brady looked tentative and that’s to be expected, to some degree, after an injury like that.

I WAS impressed by what the rookie, Mark “Dirty” Sanchez showed me last week.  He looked fairly poised, and pretty comfortable in the pocket.  Thomas Jones was great, the offensive line looked good and the D was pretty solid.

This could be a sneaky good game, and I expect it to be a close one.  It’ll really come down to how the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets play Defense, and if they can stymie Tom Brady and the Pats’ O the way Buffalo did.

Verdict: New England wins in a very close game.

 

·           Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers looked like a bunch of clowns on Sunday afternoon, particularly Jake Delhomme.  He was simply awful. 

Awful to the point where people were questioning his “Starter” role.  In fairness to Delhomme, his offensive line wasn’t good and gave him little time to do anything, but, that performance was unacceptable.

The Panthers are in shambles, Steve Smith looks a lot older in just one year, and aside from DeAngelo Williams, they don’t have much else.  The Falcons, on the other hand, are LOADED with offensive talent, and defensively, they appear to have turned the corner.

Matt Ryan looks phenomenal, “The Burner” Mike Turner is a bonafide stud and Roddy White is an emerging superstar.  This team is poised to go far.

Verdict: Atlanta gets the W.

 

·           Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills looked really good against the Patriots, and had Leodis McKelvin not decided to try and be Superman, the Bills would have stolen a Win IN New England.

The Bills played D, Terrance McGeee looks to be an elite CB and the linebackers are as stout as any in the league. 

The one question I have is whether or not Trent Edwards can really be the guy?  He looked good Monday and we’ll see if that carries over.  They’ll likely try to get TO a couple more touches this week, and against that Tampa 2 D, it shouldn’t be too tough.

Verdict: Tampa sucks….Buffalo gets the Win.

 

·           Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

This is my game of the week!  This is going to be a very good game and I’m a little torn about which way to go as of now.

I like what Seattle showed last week.  But, keep in mind that was against the Rams.  Either way, Hasselbeck looked good, and John Carlson has emerged as a game changing TE.

I picked the 49ers last week, because I though defensively, they matched up well against the Cards.  Shaun Hill is just good enough to NOT lose the game and provide the occasional big play and Frank Gore is a stud.

This is going to be a great game, and I expect the 49ers D to play tough and the Seahawks D to match the intensity.

Verdict: Seattle wins a close game.

 

·           Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers

One thing I can tell you for sure, is that BOTH of these teams will be much better this week.  Baltimore will be better defensively and San Diego will improve on their performance against the Raiders from Monday night.

The question is now; who improves more? 

That’s a tough one to answer, but Baltimore’s D is getting older, and the Chargers have some emerging players.

One in particular, is Vincent Jackson, who could end up being a Top 5 WR by season’s end.  This is going to be a tough game, and Merriman has to play like his old self, and the Charger D has to step up.

Verdict: I think Philip Rivers and the Chargers get a big W

 

·           Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears

This is going to be a defensive battle, but, I think points will be scored.  Chicago is missing it’s heart and soul now with Brian Urlacher being out for the year, and Pittsburgh is missing it’s soul with Troy Polamalu being out as well.

I think Pittsburgh is vulnerable to the pass out of certain sets, but, with little help from his WR’s and TE’s, Jay Cutler won’t be able to capitalize on that. 

I think Santonio Holmes will have a decent night, but with the pressure being applied by Chicago, look for Heath Miller to be involved early.

Verdict: Pittsburgh gets a road win

 

·           Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

If this were 1986, you’d be talking about one hell of a game coming up. However, it’s not, and we’re certainly not talking about one hell of a game here. 

This is a battle of two average to bad teams.  Cleveland has been in limbo since their last playoff appearance in 2004, and Denver has been reeling since then as well.

I think in this game, based off of what we saw in both teams’ openers, we’ll see some improvement from both squads. 

That said, Denver’s O is scary bad and Cleveland’s showed the ability to score.  Denver’s D looks better than Cleveland’s, but, Cleveland’s isn’t as bad as it once was either.

Verdict: Browns get an ugly win in Denver.

 

·           New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

For no reason in particular, other then the fact that it’s the home opener in the new stadium, I think the Cowboys are going to be tough.

The early estimates say that 110,000 people will be in the “House that Jerry Built” and if that’s the case, that creates homefield advantage like a mother!

It’ll be a decent game, and a good one for the league.

Verdict: Dallas wins their home opener.

 

Monday Sept. 21, 2009

 

·           Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

This should be a solid match-up for the discerning Monday Night Football fan.  Peyton Manning was solid if unspectacular in the opener, and Miami was decent in their loss.

I expect to see Ronnie Brown get more touches this week, something around 22-25 and run on that Colts D that let MJD run all over them a week ago.  This will come down to who scores more.

Verdict: Peyton Manning dismantles Miami’s D and gets the W

 

So, there’s my picks for Week 2.  Good luck!

 

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Denver’s Unlikely Win Raises More Questions Than It Answers

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you saw what happened yesterday in the waning moments of the Denver Broncos-Cincinnati Bengals game.

Even if you didn’t see it, you probably heard the call from Gus Johnson while you were in the kitchen making that bologna sandwich thinking all hope for a win was lost.

And, while the Denver Broncos snuck out of Paul Brown stadium with a W, there are more questions surrounding this team now than there were 48 hours ago.

The Broncos came into this season with a lot of questions surrounding their team—not only from a personnel standpoint, but also from a coaching and management standpoint as well, especially concerning the offseason moves made by the new regime.

And, while some would tell you that with this win, they’ve hushed critics or answered these questions, I’d say this: Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. 

Yes, they’re 1-0. Good for them. 

But, don’t forget what it took to get that win—an answered prayer to the football gods from someone who’s clearly been living right. Who that was, we’ll never know. But, it worked. 

The Broncos face one of the toughest schedules in the league this season and anything more than four or five wins will be surprising, especially if we continue to see offensive play like what we saw on Sunday against the Bengals. 

The Broncos offense was stagnant throughout the entire game, and looked almost lost at times.   

Their running game was below average, putting up a whopping 75 yards on 20 carries from five different ball carriers (Orton included).  Their passing game was lackluster, and aside from the 87 yard TD pass…err…deflected reception, Orton was 16-for-27 with 156 yards passing. 

Really, with the exception of the defense, there wasn’t much to be happy about watching that game if you’re a Broncos fan.

The questions being asked at Dove Valley right now are completely warranted at this point, and they require answers. Serious, honest answers that likely won’t be given from McDaniels considering his tight lipped, Belichick-esque approach to running a football team. 

It seems as though the paradigm has shifted in Denver. All through camp and the preseason, the bulk of the questions were aimed at Mike Nolan and his defense, with an exception being given to McDaniels’ offense. 

After their performance against the Bengals, Nolan’s defensive unit seems to have answered a great deal of the questions, while the offense begs more. 

We knew coming in that there were questions about Kyle Orton and whether or not he could run McDaniels’ complex, high octane offense, and how he would fit into that system. 

McDaniels answered that in the preseason by saying, “Kyle Orton will fit well in this system because he can manage the game.” 

Well, he did that in week one, and without a brilliant stroke of luck, he wouldn’t have done much against one of the defenses ranked among the worst in the league.  Now that question becomes: How good really is McDaniels’ offense without star players? 

Without Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Tom Brady, how good is it?

I’d like to state for the record that I like Kyle Orton, and I think (provided the offense get’s on track) that his numbers this season, will virtually mirror Jay Cutler’s in Chicago.  Neither of them project to be stellar this season, but both should be good.

Here in Denver, you’re also already hearing people chirp about McDaniels’ ability to effectively game-plan against someone, and his ability to recognize weaknesses and take advantage of them. 

Were there moments play calls should have been a little different? Sure. That said, I thought for his first go round, McDaniels did a fine job, especially knowing the challenge rules and having time added back on to the clock, which allowed the most improbable play of the season to happen.

But, the execution, or lack thereof, from the offense has to be a source of concern for McDaniels and the rest of the Broncos organization. 

Denver hired McDaniels, who’s billing was that of an “Offensive Mastermind” to make the Broncos an offensive powerhouse, and that’s where Bowlen went wrong.  The offense was already a powerhouse (Top 5 last season), it was the D that needed help. 

Alas, it is what it is, as Todd Bertuzzi would say.

Bottom line is this:

It was an ugly game, and the Broncos got an ugly win. I’m sure that McDaniels and the rest of the franchise understands that with the foes coming up on the schedule—N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, and the AFC West matchups—there’s no room for poor play like what we saw against Cincinnati.

At this point, everything in Bronco Country is good, the offensive issues will be brushed under the rug for another time, and the defense will be placed upon their pedestal for the week until the first let down comes. 

Then these questions will all come back to the surface, and let’s hope that McDaniels will have an answer.

 

 

 

 

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

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