Brandon Marshall: A Beast Or A Blip?

Brandon Marshall was a fourth round pick that made people say “Who?” when drafted has turned into quite a steal for the Broncos. He now holds the NFL record for catches in a single game (21) and probably will break his own record before he is through. Maybe more than once.

There is no denying his 6’4″, 230 lbs. physique and decent speed creates horrendous match-up issues for opposing DBs.

His yards after catch average, is almost unbelievable for a wide receiver.

His ability take a routine five-yarder or a bubble screen pass and s t r e t c h  it into a 15 yard play may not have a rival in the NFL.

His one-handed grabs cause defensive coordinators to pull their hair out after a perfect defensive call and great coverage.

His ability to juke and/or turn his shoulders square and run over people, even linebackers, causes OOHs and AHHs.

He has turned into an above-average blocker and can pancake a defender when the mood moves him.

He has nine TDs and over 1,000 yards and will improve on those stats before the year is through.

He has a million watt smile and has taken in his nephew to help turn around a troubled kid’s environment.

BUT….his maturity issues still come and go.

His hand-eye coordination (i.e. completing the catch) can still improve.

He has been known to put the ball on the ground at very inopportune times.

He has been a disruptive influence in the locker room at times.

Maybe the most frustrating thing about Bmarsh is his decisions to turn all this ability on and off.

I know I know, he seems to be bringing it on a more consistent basis recently, as in the Giants, Chiefs, and Colts games.

But he also has somewhat disappeared in other games (CIN, CLE, BAL, SD) where he has had no TDs and under 50 YDS in each of those games.

He said before the Giants game, he wanted to come out and “make a statement”; and he did. But why decide to do that in one game, or three, and not ALL games. As poor as the offense has been playing, he should make that effort each and every game.

Sure, teams will key on him and try to take him out of the game plan, but they tried to do that in Indy and look what happened?

My point being that maybe Brandon has begun to mature before our very eyes the past 3-4 weeks and this will continue. For his sake and for the Broncos’ sake, I hope so.

But will he? See how Randy Moss has back-slid into a ME ME ME guy again at New England and supposedly his maturity issues were resolved. We have no need to even mention TO or Chad 85; both are lost causes.

Marshall has all the tools needed to be maybe the best WR or at least one of the top five in the history of the game. But, he will have to make that next leap and maintain his commitment, desire, effort, and leadership shown in these past few games.

A Beast or a Bust?  Time will tell.

 

 

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Oh, Peyton Hillis, Where Have You Gone?

Josh McDaniels lied.

He said in the off-season that he would utilize any of Mike Shanahan’s holdover offensive talent, and that anyone that had the ability to help the team would be used in his offense.

True, after the Denver Broncos started the season 6-0, there wasn’t much one could argue with McDaniels over. The defense was playing at a phenomenal level, the offense was doing what it had to do, and the Broncos were taking the league by storm.

But a 2-5 record since has changed the tune a bit in Denver. And after experiencing a tale of two seasons after 15 weeks, this writer is finally ready to unleash on McDaniels and any Denver fans that have been unwilling to come forward and say what needs to be said:

Where the hell is Peyton Hillis , and why hasn’t he been involved in this offense?

Granted, the Broncos realized a flaw in their roster after last year’s on-going list of injuries to the running back position left them depleted and scratching at free agency for talent, but with solid players returning for the 2009 season still on the roster, McDaniels did a complete overhaul, originally bringing in J.J. Arrington, Lamont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter, and drafting Georgia running back, Knowshon Moreno.

It begs the question; where’s the room for that white guy who kicked some serious ass at tailback last year?

Hillis took the league by storm in 2008, rushing for 329 yards and five touchdowns in a five-game span towards the end of last season, and even ran for 129 yards against the New York Jets, one of last season’s top run defenses.

He averaged five yards per carry, topped 4.4 yards per carry in four straight games, and was even an asset as a receiver. A bit more than just an asset if you watch the tape and look at the numbers, as Hillis was able to haul in seven catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in a game against the Miami Dolphins before he was called to duty as an emergency tailback.

However, we know where the story goes from here. Hillis tore his hamstring in the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs, and his season was over.

Still, even with all the running back additions, fans and writers alike questioned the rookie coach all off-season on what Hillis’s role would be, and how often he’d be used. McDaniels claimed that Hillis would have a decent role, as he is a versatile and talented player, yet McDaniels seemed unwilling to switch his position, and opted to keep him at fullback.

When McDaniels was questioned on why he wasn’t using Hillis more, he simply referenced the current rushing attack, and said he wasn’t needed .

He even made the weak excuse that he wasn’t being used in short yardage situations because fullback Spencer Larsen was injured, even though it was only for one week, and doesn’t explain Hillis’s lack of offensive duties for the other 12 games.

While Hillis is still technically listed at running back on some depth charts across the web, he’s still primarily playing the role of a fullback, and for the most part in 2009, hasn’t really played a role at all.

When finally given a chance as a ball carrier for the first time in nine weeks, Hillis took seven attempts for 47 yards (6.7 yards per carry) against the Chiefs two weeks ago.

This isn’t an open announcement that Hillis should be starting over Knowshon Moreno and/or Correll Buckhalter. It’s not a promotion for him to switch positions. It’s not even a deliberate attack on Josh McDaniels or the Denver Broncos.

What it is, though, is a friendly reminder that the Broncos have a very versatile and talented player wasting away on their team. And if they don’t want to use him, they should send him somewhere where someone will.

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Brandon Marshall’s Record Game Encouraging, but Also Concerning

In Sunday’s loss to the Colts, Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton completed 21 of 28 passes to wide receiver Brandon Marshall for 200 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick.  To the rest of the receivers and running backs, he completed six of 13 passes.

Marshall’s reception rampage is encouraging for Broncos fans.  Somehow, their big play receiver is getting open at least 20 times a game, nearly 30 times on Sunday.  But where does that leave Denver’s other playmakers at receiver and tight end?

Is no one else getting open?

Despite the fact that most Denver fans loathe former quarterback Jay Cutler, I have to give the guy credit where it is due.  Not only is Cutler a key part of Denver receiving a likely top 10 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, but he also proved that Mike Shanahan built an elite core of offensive weaponry by distributing the ball to every receiver the Broncos had.

He even found a wide open Nate Jackson at times, so go figure.

One face that has disappeared this season is sophomore receiver Eddie Royal, who has some of the surest hands in the NFL.  Royal has been the Broncos’ primary return man, and has been about as ineffective offensively as a practice squad player. 

There were high expectations for Royal who caught 91 passes as a rookie.  This season, he has 34 receptions for 317 yards, and no touchdowns.  In fact, the only time Royal has found paydirt this season was on a Monday night matchup with the Chargers where he took back a kickoff and punt for touchdowns.

Royal has game-breaking speed.  He is a great route runner, allegedly.  He has sure hands.  He is a non-factor.

How about Brandon Stokley and Tony Scheffler, two of the Broncos’ best playmakers from last year? 

Give credit to Stokley for making things happen when he catches the ball, which for some reason is very rare.  Stokley is averaging less than one catch per game with 12 on the season, three of which have gone for scores. 

Scheffler also has made the most of his opportunity, catching 28 passes for 342 yards and two scores of his own.  Still, those numbers are the lowest for Tony since his rookie season in which he only played significantly on offense for five games.

The second leading receiver on Denver is Jabar Gaffney, who was a nice pickup for Denver.  Gaffney has 32 catches for 442 yards this season, which are about par for his career.  He has yet to score a touchdown though, which is unfortunate for how consistent he has been.

And how about Peyton Hillis?  Hillis is arguably the biggest fan favorite in Denver since John Elway or Rod Smith.  The second year player out of Arkansas has only run the ball 12 times this season, a number which Bronco fans thought would be much larger heading into this season.

Hillis had some issues early this season with fumbling, and may have found himself in Josh McDaniels’ dog house.  Couple that with a concussion and you have a disappearing fan favorite.

While Brandon Marshall is the focal point of Denver’s offense, it would certainly be nice to see these other weapons get involved.  The Broncos are simply too talented on offense to let all of it go to waste.

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Josh McDaniels: Great Coach, Questionable Game-Time Decisions

Game 13 in the NFL.

It’s an away game in perhaps the most savvy stadium environment in the NFL.

The crowd is hushed when the home team has the ball, up against a team looking to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

Against a team boasting the best quarterback in the league; a quarter back that opposing coaches fear so much, they are willing to go for a 4th down conversions on their own 40, just to keep the ball out of his hands.

After winning the coin toss, the election is to give Peyton Manning the ball to start the game.

Later, with Indianapolis stuffing Knowshon Moreno time and again on short yardage, he is once again handed the rock and asked to run into a brick wall.

The problem with some two-bit amateur commentator, (such as myself) bringing up such issues is that often all the great things Josh McDaniels has done get tossed to the side.

Let me be clear; Josh McDaniels is a great coach, if not an elite one. He rebuilt one of the worst defenses in the league last year, and turned it into a top 5 one this year.

Initially he was criticized heavily for his methodology. No big name defensive linemen taken in the draft? A washed up Dawkins is going to anchor the secondary?

The offensive is steady, safe, and sometimes explosive. It’s not spectacular, but there is always that feeling the this offense can take off at any moment. It gets the job done for the most part. People said that without Cutler, Brandon Marshall would just fade away, and yet, on Sunday Marshall and Orton combined to set a new NFL record.

But when the casual observer can see the obvious, one begins to wonder exactly what it is the coach is seeing.

McDaniels explained the decision to give Manning the ball right out of the gate this way; The plan was for the Broncos to have the ball at the end of the second quarter, score, and then have the ball at the beginning of the third quarter, and score again. In addition, giving Indy the ball to start the game and then stopping them with a 3 and out would have been a huge psychological boost for the Broncos, and a humbling set back for the Colts.

Of course things didn’t work out that way.

Listening to McDaniels explain his decisions provides quite a bit of insight into his psyche.

The first thing that strikes me is; the man does not believe in random happenings. Anyone who believes he can make a precise blue print for his team to have the ball at the end of the second quarter, is thinking in the realm of formula and equations.

It’s apparent that McDaniels sees the game as a mathematical problem, and solving it is only a matter of crunching the right numbers and sticking to the formula.

It’s interesting to note that McDaniels was a math major in college, and his understanding that deferring the ball at the beginning of the game can be of benefit, statistically, can not be overlooked.

The downside to this kind of mindset is that it can lead to dogmatic and rigid thinking.

Yes, theoretically, deferring would give the Broncos two extra possessions, and lo’ and behold, it almost worked—except the Broncos went ultra-conservative as the half winded down.

Imagine that what you see unfolding on the field is literally Josh McDaniel’s mind at work; calculating theories and computing probabilities.

In all that mathematical mojo, McDaniels over-calculated and tried to slow things down and burn time off the clock, postulating a steady march ending in a Broncos score with 2 seconds left in the half.

Instead, the team bogged down, and gave the ball back to Manning.

The math was off.

The theory works, the statistics hold up, until you throw in reality.  Before you know it, you’re down 21-0.

This Monday morning coach understands the logic, but still thinks it was a bad idea. It was an example of McDaniels thinking too much. It was also an example of how self-assured—perhaps even cocky—he is about this team.

It’s important to note that last year McDaniel’s Sensei, Bill Belichick, was one of the first coaches to laud deferring the opening kick-off at the NFL level.

What about Knowshon Moreno being sent time and again into a defensive line that was stuffing him at each and every turn?

Moreno, for all his positives, is not a short-yardage-obvious-running-play kind of back. The Bronocs have such a back, a bruiser, in Peyton Hillis. Where was he?

McDaniels, in the post game press conference, explained that since blocking back Spender Larsen was injured early in the game, Hillis had to fulfill the role of a blocking back.

It makes logical sense. Buckhalter also went down with an injury. Lamont Jordan was inactive for the game. That literally left only two backs on the field: Moreno and Hillis.

Hillis is the better short yardage back. He apparently is also the better blocking back. It seems, when McDaniels weighed his options, he picked the lesser of two evils: Hillis will block, Moreno will run. Rigid thinking? Maybe. In hindsight, if this was the given situation, why was Hillis not blocking for Moreno as the seconds ticked down at the end of the first half. For five straight plays – even in short yardage – the Denver Broncos power back Hillis was no where to be seen. The rock was given to Moreno, with the clock winding down, and no blocking fullback was in sight. Might the ball have been handed to a bigger, stronger, and more mucking “down-hill” runner for better effect? Perhaps.

Still, let us consider some other issues that effect short yardage situations.

As play calling goes, the Broncos rarely go to play action and put Orton in roll out opportunities even less. Both of these issues, along with quarterbacking from shotgun, make short yardage running plays stand out and much more obvious and defensible.

This is also an offense that leans heavily toward a conservative philosophy.

We saw the results Sunday, as the Colts defense lined up and tee’d off on Moreno mercilessly. It’s a predictable outcome to a predictable offensive scheme. 

Also consider the Offensive Line this year.  There are injuries and demotions going on. Though the line coach is the same as last year, the scheme has changed some.

Statistically the team is below average in 3rd-and-short situations, and near last on 4th-and-short.

It’s not mentioned much, but the O-line is not the same this year.

Something is missing. 

So it just doesn’t boil down to one thing; not the decision to run the smaller back into a staunch defensive line, the sputtering short yardage offensive line play, nor the surprisingly predictable and conservative scheme of the offense.

McDaniels is a rookie head coach. Sometimes we forget that. He’s destined to be one of the elites someday. As he has shown a few times this year however, some of his play calling and game time decisions aren’t fully matured yet.

There is a time and a place for “statistics”.

There is a time and a place to punch the other team in the mouth with power running and vertical plays.

McDaniels is still learning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2010 Denver Broncos Mock Draft Pt. Four: McClain to Denver a Done Deal?

For my first few mock drafts this offseason, I have projected the Broncos to make a trade. This particular mock will not feature a trade, though I feel it could be in Denver‘s best interest to do so. They would not have to cope with the cost of a top-10 pick, though they might be forfeiting some talent in the prospect they acquire.

While it may in fact be wise to trade down and acquire picks, the Broncos can do well with the six selections they currently possess. This is a very deep draft, especially at the top end. 

During the 2009 draft, the Broncos traded their own 2010 first-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for a second-round pick which was used on cornerback Alphonso Smith. Critics thought the Broncos to be idiotic for doing that, especially after trading away quarterback Jay Cutler. They thought the Broncos’ first round pick was sure to be a top-10 pick, and the Bears‘ pick would be in the 20s or later.

Looks like Josh McDaniels was and is smarter than them, and the Bears are currently 5-8 and projected to send Denver the eighth overall pick in the up-coming draft.

Here’s how I would project Denver’s draft if they decide to stay put with all of their picks.

 

First Round: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

It is clear after three seasons that the 6’4″, 245 pound linebacker on the nation’s top defense is the best linebacker in this draft if he decides to come out. The All-American has recorded 266 tackles, eight sacks, five interceptions, and a fumble forced in his time at Alabama.

McClain is smart, durable, and a great defensive leader. If the Broncos selected him, they would have one of, if not the best linebacker group in the NFL. McClain would pair in the middle with D.J. Williams, while emerging star Elvis Dumervil and 2009 first-round pick Robert Ayers man the outside spots.

McClain has excellent range against the run and takes great angles. He is one of the best pure tacklers in the draft, and projects as a three down linebacker at the next level. The prospect of adding him has to be exciting for the Broncos, whose only real defensive weakness is against the run. 

 

Second Round: Dan Williams, DL, Tennessee

Williams would be a great value pick here for the Broncos. He adds good size and athleticism to the front line, and would make a great eventual replacement for Kenny Peterson, Vonnie Holliday, or Ryan McBean.

He has great versatility as a lineman and is a run stopping force. He has imposing size at 6’3″, 327 pounds, and has the ability to get in the backfield on a very consistent basis.  Williams is an ideal potential fit for the nose tackle position in the 3-4, and would be great insurance up front for Denver’s linebacker core.

 

Third Round: Adrian Clayborn, DL, Iowa

This would be another great value pick. As I have stated in previous mock drafts, I am really high on Clayborn and if he declares for the draft I think he would be a steal at this point. He is an excellent run stuffer and a relentless pass rusher. He is very athletic for his size, and has good burst off the line of scrimmage. 

Clayborn is versatile enough to play inside or outside in the 4-3, or as a five technique or rush linebacker in the 3-4. The Broncos will love his versatility and burst.

 

Fourth Round: Mike Johnson, OL, Alabama

The Broncos need some size and depth on the offensive line, and Johnson gives them just that. He has been a very versatile performer for the Crimson Tide, playing both tackle and guard in his time there. This season proved that the Broncos are somewhat weak in depth at offensive tackle, and they lack the size on the interior line (left guard and center in particular) to effectively run their offense. 

Johnson can play tackle or guard, and if Seth Olsen can transition to center, Johnson could be the eventual starter at the left guard position.

 

Sixth Round: Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, Ole Miss

I’m going with another SEC player here in McCluster, one of the most versatile players in the draft. He has blazing speed, and can help the Broncos in many different areas. He can line up as a return man, catch passes in the screen game, carry the ball, or line up as a wide receiver.

He is a jack-of-all-trades who is vastly undersized, and he could end up being a big steal.

 

Seventh Round: Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan

Mesko has a booming foot, and Mitch Berger clearly isn’t the Broncos’ long term answer at the punter position. This kid was one of the few bright spots for the Wolverines in 2009, and should have a long future punting on Sundays.

 

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Darcel McBath: The Denver Broncos Unsung Hero, Out For Season

In a day of big hits, flashy celebrations, and underachieving superstars, a rookie defensive back slowly made a name for himself amongst veterans like Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey.

Darcel McBath, a second-round pick out of Texas Tech, may be one of the most overlooked players that have helped turn the Broncos around this season. The Broncos over the past few years have been horrible tacklers on special teams and McBaths’ 28 tackles this year have come almost exclusively on the third side of the ball.

Twenty-eight tackles, 22 of them solo, is quite a feat for a near exclusive special teamer. Eleven of these solo tackles came in his two games against San Diego. This is absolutely spectacular considering San Diego’s knack for breaking big plays with speedster Darren Sproles. I have a feeling he will be sorely missed when the Broncos play big-play-man DeSean Jackson and the Eagles in two weeks.

Josh McDaniels had this to say about rookie Darcel McBath: “He’s the personal protector on the punt team, which is no small chore. He handles all the communication there. He’s our leading tackler, very unselfish, plays great on all of the teams. He has been a great addition in that regard and he will be missed.”

Steve Tasker is in the conversation for the one of the greatest players to not make the Hall of Fame and apart from 51 career receptions, he was a exclusive special teams player for the Bills back when they almost won all those Super Bowls. A form tackler with great speed and an unselfish attitude;that is who McBath reminds me of when he plays.

Studying under arguably the best safety and cornerback of this decade, Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey, I think McBath has an opportunity to grow into much more than just a hard-nosed special teamer. He has two interceptions this year with limited defensive playing time.

One of those picks came this last weekend against Peyton Manning‘s undefeated Colts and gave Kyle Orton and Brandon Marshall a short field to work with unfortunately, McBath will be on IR for the remainder of the season with a broken right forearm he acquired in the fourth quarter of Sundays game.

Perhaps, just perhaps if he had stayed in, Peyton would not have been able to make a game ending drive at the end of the fourth quarter.

McBath will be missed, but veteran Vernon Fox has been signed in his place and hopefully, will help the Broncos not miss a beat against a hungry Raiders team this weekend.

Sometimes it is the players you don’t see who make the biggest difference; hopefully McBath will be a productive player for the Broncos for many years to come.

Also, big shout out to Brandon Marshall and his record 21 receptions this weekend. Keep it up big boy!

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How the Denver Broncos Shake Out in the AFC Playoff Scenarios

If ifs and buts

Were candy and nuts…

These are a few of our favorite things!

 

When the playoffs near

And the picture’s in view but not so clear

These are a few of our favorite things!

 

Self-realization as a football fan starts now.

Admit it, whether you are religious in having a faith in God or not, or you celebrate the holidays or not, you as the NFL fan love this time of year.

The playoffs start in less than four weeks. Shortly after the last regular season games on Jan. 3 take place, the playoff picture will be official.

As of now, there is still a great deal of wiggle room, especially in the AFC, but this week is the time to nail down the possible playoff entry scenarios. You have to map that out first before you can speculate on the possible matchups, so here’s a definitive look at the AFC Playoff picture and how it impacts the Denver Broncos most specifically.

 

Kiss Home Field Advantage Goodbye

As everyone knows, the Indianapolis Colts are set to run the table in the AFC, as they may finish the regular season undefeated. Then the road to the Super Bowl goes through Indianapolis.

There is a remote yet favorable speculation that might land San Diego in Indy first. That situation could be the best thing for the rest of the AFC playoff picture, so stay tuned.

For now, however, give the Colts credit for yet another amazing run under Peyton Manning. The Colts are currently 13-0 with three games remaining. Not even 13-0 New Orleans in the NFC has wrapped up home field like the Colts have at this stage.

Here’s how the rest of the AFC teams shake out.

 

San Diego Chargers

Just a month and a half ago we were calling them the San Diego Super-chokers. Suddenly there is life in San Diego, where this team is living up to its billing. The Chargers are 10-3 overall, 7-3 in the AFC, and 5-1 in the AFC West. This all virtually guarantees the Chargers a share of the AFC West Division crown at the very least.

If the Chargers win this week and the Broncos lose, San Diego will represent the AFC West and probably be the second seed in the AFC.

There is, however, a very interesting game in the AFC this weekend involving the Chargers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. These two teams are currently No. 2 and No. 3 in the AFC playoff picture. This matchup will define which team has the inside track to the No. 2 position. This is a key game because whichever team loses this game could be the first team to play at Indianapolis in the playoffs.

If San Diego and Denver win, they guarantee the second seed in the AFC will be an AFC West team. If Denver loses, they will officially only make it as a wild card team.

If disaster hits San Diego and they lose three games in a row, they would lose the AFC West if Denver won all of their remaining games.

If San Diego loses two of their remaining three games and Denver wins all of their remaining three games, the two teams tie head-to-head in the division.

The tiebreaker will then go to conference play. The Chargers currently own a 7-3 edge to the Broncos’ 6-4 conference record. If the Chargers lose to Cincinnati and Tennessee, it puts Denver back on the inside track if they win out. That is the best scenario for the Broncos outside of a Chargers three-game skid.  

Say the Chargers do lose to the Titans and the Bengals while beating Washington and Denver wins out. This would put Denver at 8-4 in conference play and San Diego at 7-5.  The Denver Broncos would then own the second seed in the AFC.

If San Diego loses the rest of their games, they will lose tiebreakers to Miami and Baltimore because of head-to-head losses this year.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals could own the second seed in the AFC, but they must win this weekend against San Diego. If the Bengals lose, the AFC West will own the second seed due to head-to-head losses to the Chargers and Broncos.

The Bengals could wind up 9-3 in conference play, which would make them the second seed in the AFC.

The game against the Chargers on Sunday is paramount to the AFC playoff picture.

The Bengals lose their division lead if and only if they lose all of their last three games and the Baltimore Ravens win all of their remaining three games.

 

New England Patriots

The only shot New England has at being the second seed is to win all of their remaining games. San Diego will have to lose all of their remaining games. The Bengals will have to beat San Diego and lose their remaining two, and Denver will have to lose two or more games.

The Patriots have a tough stretch in playing at Buffalo, hosting Jacksonville, and finishing out at Houston. 

The biggest competition for New England is in their division. They could lose their division to the Miami Dolphins or New York Jets if they slide much more.

The chances for New England to own a wild card slot are slim, especially if they lose to the Jaguars because they would then lose tiebreakers to the Jags and the Broncos. The Pats split with the Jets and Dolphins and only own the tiebreaker against the Ravens.

 

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos currently have the inside track to the No. 1 wild card slot in the AFC. They can win the division only if they win out and San Diego loses two of their next three, preferably against the Bengals and the Titans. Denver can also win the division if they have the same record as the Chargers but that would require the Chargers to lose both games to their remaining AFC teams while Denver wins out against their AFC opponents.  The Broncos could own the second seed in the AFC if the Chargers lose the division and the Broncos at least tie the Bengals’ overall record.

This would mean the Broncos could host at least one playoff game.

If the Broncos wind up as the wild card, they will not have a home game unless both wild card teams run the table, which is highly unlikely.

Denver owns wild card tiebreakers against the Bengals and Patriots. The Broncos have an edge over the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Jets but lose tiebreakers to the Ravens and Steelers.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Jags survive Indy and New England, they could be the toughest team heading into the playoffs. The Jags just lost to Miami, however, so they are vulnerable, especially when you consider they would lose a key tiebreaker to the Dolphins.

If the Jags win out, they still can’t win their division thanks to the Colts.

The Jags could surpass the Broncos if they win more conference games. Currently the Broncos are at 6-4 with two conference games against the Raiders and Chiefs. The Jags are at 6-3 with the Colts, Patriots, and Browns remaining. 

Not helping the Jaguars’ cause is that they haven’t sold out this season and are subject to local television blackouts.

 

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens can only win their division if they win out and the Bengals lose out, which is not likely.

The Ravens, however, are a very scary proposition for the Broncos since they own the tiebreaker against the Broncos.

If Denver loses just one game and the Ravens win out, the Ravens will own the head-to-head on the Broncos, which in effect could push Denver out of the playoffs even if they win 10 games.

The Ravens currently own other tiebreakers against the Chargers and Steelers but lose them to the Patriots.

The Ravens could win out against Chicago, the Steelers, and at Oakland.

 

Miami and the Jets

The reality is these two teams are hanging on for life. Their best shot at the playoffs is if the Patriots lose their grip on the division and the Jaguars and Broncos lose games.

These two teams are on life support and need a lot of help.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Who are they kidding? The defending World Champions are done—stick a fork in them. The one thing they can do is beat Baltimore, which opens the door for Denver, Jacksonville, Miami, and New York.

 

For Broncos fans, the most direct route to the playoffs is three wins in a row. They could win the division and the second seed. As long as the Broncos beat the Raiders and Chiefs in Denver, their route is fairly secure, but they are highly vulnerable to the Ravens and Jaguars in tie scenarios for wild card slots. So losses by the Ravens and Jaguars are appreciated. 

 

Contact Chaz at sportsmanagement@gmail.com

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NFL Playoffs Left in Question Following Big Weekend

 

All Denver and Jacksonville had to do was win to become virtual (though not mathematical) locks to secure the AFC wildcards.  In the NFC the Cowboys and Giants could solidified the NFC race with wins, yet instead watched Philadelphia leapfrog ahead to the division lead while the Cowboys and Giants appear to be fighting for that sixth seed now.

In a weekend that could have been filled with coffin nails, hope survived just a little longer for several teams who won while those ahead of them largely fell.  Now teams thought long out of the playoffs still see a glimmer of hope.  In the AFC especially, 9-7 may just end up edging into the playoffs.

Miami defeating Jacksonville held the most blatant impact.  With a win Jacksonville would be 8-5 and hold a solid lead with a pair of difficult games upcoming.  Facing New England and Indianapolis, the 7-6 Jaguars could easily see an 8-8 finish after a 7-5 start.

 Miami meanwhile kept its hopes alive by ascending above .500 for the first time all year.  Facing the Titans, Texans, and Steelers, they have a much greater chance of running the table and finishing 10-6.  Their big playoff question will come down to week 16 when Jacksonville plays New England.  If a struggling Patriots team manages a loss, Miami may just be able to squeak into that divisional seed.  If Jacksonville drops that game, Miami will be in a great position for the sixth and final playoff berth.

Baltimore finally assumed the role of ‘other AFC North team’, which had been given to Pittsburgh by default ever since Cincinnati assumed sole possession of the division.  They have failed to string together consecutive victories since the 3-0 start against San Diego, but have a great opportunity to break that trend with Chicago, Oakland, and Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule.

The mostly disappointing Jets and temporarily deflated Titans have also watched playoff hopes continue.  The New York Jets dipped above .500 for the first time since week five (which was ironically a loss to the aforementioned Dolphins).  At 7-6 they occupy a four-way tie for that sixth seed with the Jaguars and Dolphins.

Facing two playoff teams (Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals) and one desperate to stay alive in the playoff hunt (Atlanta Falcons), the Jets schedule is the toughest by far of the wildcard hopefuls.  They will need the Colts to give Manning and company a lot of rest week 16 to hope for a 2-1 record and a 9-7 wildcard.

The Tennessee Titans were considered eliminated for all practicality after falling to Indianapolis last week.  The unfortunate scheduling bump in the road against an undefeated Colts team following a string of five straight victories dropped the team to 5-7. 

At the time it was thought even an undefeated run and a 9-7 record would come up short.  Instead they just might be able to squeeze out the last spot thanks to several tough games for those 7-6 teams.  Next week’s direct battle with Miami may just decide who holds onto that final seed.

So who will grab that AFC wildcard?  It will likely come down to Miami versus Baltimore.  The Ravens and Dolphins fight will likely come down to a tie-breaker between the two 10-6 teams.  Both would have the same conference records in that scenario, which means a tie-breaker involving the ‘best win-loss percentage among common games’. 

Competition is much less bunched together in the NFC.  Assuming the Packers maintain their fifth seeding, three teams are vying for that sixth and final seed (four should San Francisco upset Arizona tonight).  Atlanta (who would share 6-7 with San Francisco), Dallas (having just dropped behind the Eagles in the division and stand at 8-4), and the New York Giants (hoping the Cowboys continue their December ways while sitting a game back at 7-6).

Dallas currently holds lone possession of that sixth seed, and is even still fighting for the division after dipping a single game below Philadelphia.  They do face a difficult remaining schedule, playing the New Orleans Saints, much improved Washington Redskins, and finish the year head-to-head with the Philadelphia Eagles.

 It is highly likely Dallas plays out the season to t tune of a 1-2 finish that lands them at 9-7.  This would require a lot of help to get them into the postseason.  If Washington can play as they have the last few weeks, a 2008 Broncos emulating 8-8 finish is not unheard of.

The New York Giants may find themselves cheering on Philadelphia just after losing to them in a 45-38 shootout.  One game back of Dallas and still trying to regain form after a torrid start to the year, the Eagles topping Dallas in week 17 might very well be the game that puts New York into the playoffs. 

The Giants play two winnable games against the Redskins and Panthers, followed by a season-closing tough matchup with Minnesota.  New York will likely have to hope the Vikings, having secured the second seed, will take a note from the Indianapolis Colts and give their starters significant rest in that final game.

The troubles in Dallas and New York provide Atlanta some hope despite another loss.  At 6-7 and suffering from a multitude of injuries, they have to hope they can get hot while Dallas and New York continue their late season difficulties. 

The Jets, Bills, and Buccaneers all constitute winnable games.  They should be able to finish 9-7.  Unfortunately their fate is more in the hands of the Cowboys and Giants, and how those teams respond to difficult final schedules.

Ultimately the NFC’s sixth seed might very well back into the playoffs; all major competitors to that final seed are witnessing difficult stretches, going a combined 5-10 in the last five games.  Whichever one can break the trend first should be able to secure the final wildcard.  At this juncture it would appear Dallas’ mid-season surge should be enough to hang on for that last playoff berth.

Instead of discussing how the playoff matches are beginning to shape up, this week continued to shake things up and continue the debate over just who will make those playoffs.  Teams on life support continued to breathe while others looking for solid ground found quicksand.  Judging by play and final schedules it would appear Dallas and Baltimore should be the teams to grab those sixth seeds, but the truth will probably be in doubt through the final weekend of regular season play.

 

To see just how some playoff standards have dipped below expectations to open room for these teams see:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/306652-why-the-mighty-hath-fallen-a-look-at-major-nfl-declines-in-2009

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Broncos-Colts: Denver Disappoints But Had a Chance To Defeat Indianapolis

On the surface to most NFL fans, it may look like the Indianapolis Colts handily beat the Denver Broncos. However, the scoreboard and statistics are very misleading. I urge you to take a deeper look into the game and see how the Broncos defense handled Peyton Manning.

The first half was somewhat of a train wreck for the Broncos, and it really is the reason they lost the game. A lot of the blame goes to head coach Josh McDaniels for some very ordinary play calls in critical situations.

In the past, under Mike Shanahan**, the Broncos rarely kept it close against Manning and the Colts. His Broncos never beat Manning in a meaningful game. On Sunday, first-year head coach Josh McDaniels had a very tough task in front of him. With a two-game lead in the AFC Wild Card race, the Broncos were on the road in Indianapolis, facing an undefeated Colts team lead by a healthy Peyton Manning.

After struggling mightily after knee surgery in 2008, Manning has returned to very good form in 2009. His passer rating of 101.9 rates him fifth in the NFL. He has thrown 29 touchdowns with a pretty much completely new corps of wide receivers this season. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have been brought into the limelight under the wings of the future hall of famer.

Early in the season, Manning was lights out. He threw 20 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. That has changed as the quality of opponent has gotten better as of late. In his last four games, he has thrown only nine touchdowns and doubled his total interception total by throwing seven interceptions.

Even with his lack of success of late, the Colts are still unbeaten. Led by a stout defense and steady running from Joseph Addai, the Colts have managed to escape after being very vulnerable the past few weeks.

The Broncos had every chance to put the pressure on Manning and his teammates. Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey turned Manning over on multiple occasions giving the Broncos a legit chance to get back into the game. After allowing touchdowns on the Colts’ first and second possessions, the Broncos defense forced a “three and out.”

Orton followed it up with a nice completion to Brandon Marshall, which moved the Broncos to their own 30 yard line. A sack of zero yards and a run of four by rookie Knowshon Moreno made it 3rd-and-6 from their own 34.

In his first sketchy call, the Broncos handed it off for only a two-yard gain. They were forced to punt, and Manning led the Colts down for another touchdown making it 21-0. I question the young head coach and his decision to run the ball in the situation because of his experience with New England.

He knows that to beat Manning you need to score points. A very conservative play call in a desperate situation, called for play that is more likely to net more than six yards.

From that point until late in the game, the Broncos pretty much controlled the ball and the Colts. On the next drive, the Broncos got what they desperately needed. Eight completions and 80 yards later, Orton had made it 21-7, hitting Brandon Marshall for a five-yard touchdown catch.

The Colts went “three and out” on their next drive, using only 32 seconds of the clock. Denver started their next drive at their own 46 yard line. With great field position and a chance to cut the lead to one score, McDaniels’ Broncos needed a big play.

With 1:41 on the clock, Moreno ran the ball for one yard on first down. On 2nd-and-9, a good pass to Moreno made it third and less than a yard from the Indianapolis 45-yard line. A run for no gain off of their right tackle, Tyler Polumbus made it a critical fourth down situation.

It was interesting that McDaniels decided to run behind one of his weaker lineman in such a crucial situation. At the start of the season, Pro Bowl-caliber right tackle Ryan Harris was starting. Due to an injury against the Baltimore Colts in which Harris dislocated two of his toes, the Broncos have had to make some changes up front. 

In most situations, you would figure that if the Broncos needed one yard, they would call on the guy up front, their stand out, Ryan Clady. McDaniels much like his mentor Bill Belichick has been willing to go for it in most fourth and short situations.

He decided to go with another run, this time up the middle behind the lightest of the Broncos lineman, Casey Wiegmann. They were absolutely stuffed and turned it over on downs to the Colts with about 40 seconds until halftime.

With only 34 seconds on the clock, Manning was trying to move the Colts into field goal range when he was intercepted by Brian Dawkins at the 50-yard line. A 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Darrell Reid cost the Broncos a realistic chance at a legitimate drive.

The Broncos went into halftime down by 14 points when it realistically should have been less than that.

The Broncos have made very good coaching adjustments in all of their victories at halftime in those games. Their defense has honed in on what the offense had success doing in the first half and they have been able to shut it down when they needed it the most.

The Broncos went “three and out” on their very first possession of the second half and a nice punt by Mitch Berger pinned the Colts inside their own 20.

The Denver defense forced Manning to a couple bad incompletions and they punted the ball right back to the Broncos. After gains equaling 24 yards, the Broncos were in business at midfield. A nine-yard scramble by Orton on second down moved Denver closer and brought up 3rd-and-1 from the Indianapolis 33.

A terrible delay of game penalty by the offensive coaches and quarterback made it 3rd-and-6. Orton was sacked and Denver was forced to punt again.

On the next Colts drive, Manning threw another interception to Brian Dawkins and the Broncos had the ball at the Indianapolis 37-yard line. Moving it down to the Indianapolis 15-yard line after a series of runs and passed made it 3rd-and-1 for the third time in the game. Another penalty backed up the Broncos, making it 3rd-and-6.

Orton’s next pass was badly underthrown and intercepted by the Colts. Squandering multiple opportunities has been the Broncos story in all of their losses this season. They made all of their bad mistakes at crucial moments in their comeback attempt. With first downs on Indianapolis’s side of the field on those two drives, coming away with zero points ensured the negative outcome.

To make things worse, Manning was still throwing the ball erratically and the Broncos got the ball back 50 seconds later. Back to back plays totaling 26 yards moved them deep in Colts territory again. Three plays later, the streaky place kicker, Matt Prater, missed a 42-yard field goal attempt, making it four straight possessions with no points.

Guess what happened on the next Colts drive? The very first play was intercepted by Darcel McBath. He returned the pick to the Indianapolis 24-yard line. By now most fans watching this game can’t believe how bad Manning is playing, not realizing that Denver could easily have tied or taken the lead had their offense put together any semblance of a drive.

Again, the Broncos decided to squander their opportunity. Unlike the last trip, Prater made his 28-yard field goal attempt. The Broncos had cut the lead to 11 with practically the entire fourth quarter in front of them.

Three straight quick incompletions in a matter of only 13 seconds gave the ball right back to the Broncos with a chance to make it a one-score game. A fairly quick, 11-play drive capped off by Brandon Marshall’s NFL record-tying 20th catch for a five-yard touchdown made it 21-16. The two-point conversion, another conservative run up the middle, was no good.

At this point, I’m thinking how could this have happened. All of those second half defensive adjustments have caused Manning this much trouble, no way. He has faced so many looks and tests through the years. After re-watching the majority of the game, a lot of the problems stem from inexperienced receivers. He is relying on kids out their to make on-the-fly adjustments to their routes.

The problem is, Marvin Harrison isn’t out there anymore. He has two reliable guys to throw the ball two, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. He was unable to get the matchups he wanted, and Denver was doing a good job of matching up Dawkins on Clark.

The comeback came up a little short for the Broncos, as Manning made a critical and game-breaking 3rd-and-long throw to Austin Collie on the first set of the next series. From there, the Colts scored, making it 28-16 and that’s how it finished.

I beg all of you NFL critics and story writers to be a little more skeptical of the Colts’ 13-0 record. They remind me a lot of the 13-0 Denver Broncos of 1996. Young and talented on the outside with a veteran presence at quarterback.  That team lost a heartbreaker at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars led by Tom Coughlin. 

If I were predicting a playoff result right now, my guess is the Colts do not win their first home game. I think they are ripe for the playoff upset. Also, give the Denver Broncos a little more credit. As the fifth seed in the AFC right now, Denver should be considered a team to be reckoned with.

With two relatively easy matchups with rivals Kansas City and Oakland remaining on their schedule and a road matchup with the very good Philadelphia Eagles, Denver will most likely be playing the Bengals or Patriots on Wild Card Weekend.

If I were one of those teams and it works out that way, you better have all your guns ready because the Broncos can bring it when they’re on.

Successfully moving the ball down the field through the air, McDaniels again called a very conservative first down run. A coach who has been more than enthusiastic on the sidelines and has brought a new life to Denver Broncos footbal.

He absolutely destroyed them in two straight playoff games in 2003 and 2004. In 2003, Manning through four first half touchdowns and finished with a perfect passer rating.

He led the Colts to a 31-3 halftime lead and they finished it off by winning 41-10. The following season, Denver had to travel to Indianapolis for their first playoff game. In pretty much a repeat performance, Manning threw for 457 yards and four touchdowns. At halftime, the score was 35-3 and the Broncos had no answer for the 2003 and 2004 NFL MVP.

In 2006, Denver got a chance for payback against the Colts. Their hopes were dashed again when Manning came in to town. He threw for 345 yards and three touchdowns, all to wideout, Reggie Wayne. The Broncos kept it close by holding the Colts to only six first half points.

Manning found his groove in the second half. The Colts defeated the Broncos 34-31 and kept their perfect record in tact at the time. 2007 was no different than the previous three chances. In a Week Four battle, the Colts dominated the second half at home and defeated the Broncos 38-20.

Peyton Manning again threw for three touchdowns and added a running touchdown to his unbelievable statistics against the Denver Broncos. Beyond those games you have to go back to 1993 for the last time the Broncos won a meaningful game against the Indianapolis Colts. They did defeat the Colts in week 16 of the ’03-’04 season and week 17 of the ’04-’05 season. Both games meant absolutely nothing to the Colts.

They were going to be the third seed in the AFC no matter what the outcome was in both of those games. It just happen to turn out that they would end up having Denver as their opening round playoff opponent in both seasons.

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Come To Think Of It: Denver’s Brandon Marshall Is the Biggest Loser

No, I don’t mean to imply that the Broncos‘ fine wideout Brandon Marshall is a loser.

In fact, his NFL-record 21 receptions against the probable Super Bowl-bound Indianapolis Colts is indicative of his tremendous abilities.

Still, all those catches were in a 28-16 losing effort and when Marshall looks back on his record-setting day, that score will be there as well.

Marshall surpassed the mark San Francisco‘s Terrell Owens set on Dec. 17, 2000. He finished with 200 yards and two touchdowns and bettered his own team record of 18 catches, set on Sept. 14, 2008 against San Diego.

Kyle Orton is lucky to be throwing to a receiver like Marshall. Jay Cutler apparently benefited a lot from that while he was in Denver considering his struggles with the Bears.

Broncos coach Josh McDaniels put the proper spin on the achievement.

“When you lose, you lose,” McDaniels said. “There’s no moral victories in this league. We understand where we want to go. We just got a really close-up look of it for four quarters.”

Moral victories don’t show up in the standings, but look, despite falling behind 21-0, Denver didn’t embarrass itself in Indianapolis. Still, I’m sure the Broncos would trade Marshall’s record for a win.

Colts linebacker Clint Session had this to say when told about Marshall’s record.

“He got 21 catches today?” Session asked. “That’s a good tribute to that guy. We knew he was going to be a tough task to cover coming into this game. He got his, but they lost.”

And that’s the bottom line, isn’t it?

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